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Back Near Pre-Jobs Data Lows

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are broadly lower after the bell, futures nearly back to Friday's pre-jobs levels as imminent recession concerns continued to cool Tuesday. In turn -- projected rate cut pricing into year end continue to cool, current vs. early Tuesday levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -44.3bp (-45.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -75.9bp (-80.8bp), Dec'24 -105.8bp (-110.8bp).
  • The NY Fed’s Q2 household debt & credit report showed only a modest increase in transition rates to delinquency and serious delinquency after more marked increases in Q1, ruling out a sharper increase that could have been associated with more recessionary conditions.
  • The trade deficit narrowed by less than expected in June to a seasonally adjusted $73.1bn (cons $72.5bn) after $75.0bn. It leaves a deficit still tracking at the ~3.1% GDP seen in May for a widening from the 2.9% GDP in Q1.
  • Treasury futures held near lows (TYU4 113-11, -23.5) after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CLG4) came out on the screws: 3.810% high yield vs. 3.809% WI; 2.55x bid-to-cover vs. 2.67x prior.
  • Look ahead: limited data Wednesday includes MBA Mortgage Apps and Consumer Credit, Boston Fed Collins roadshow not expected to discuss policy, no Q&A, US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CLF6).
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