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Back To 90bps Of Fed Cuts In 2024 With ISM Services

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pared some of their initial decline seen on the weaker details within ISM services (which included some caveats including the volatility seen in prices paid).
  • March and May meetings are little changed, but the Dec’24 implied rate sits 3.5bps lower.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 6.5bp May, 22.5bp Jun, 37bp Jul and 90bp Dec.
  • The 4.43% implied effective rate seen for the Dec FOMC is down 11.5bps since last week’s monthly PCE and jobless claims data but still 24bp higher than before last month’s CPI data.

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