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Back Where We Started

US TSYS
Tsys currently trading firmer, are well off first half highs after the bell. Rate support evaporated after the $33B 10Y note auction reopen tailed, the high yield of 2.960% vs. 2.937% WI -- actually matched the high yield for the $34B 1Y bill sale earlier in the session. Rates pared gains/extended session lows while yield curves finished flatter but well off lows as accts square up ahead Wed's CPI MoM (1.0%, 1.1%); YoY (8.6%, 8.8%).
  • Early rate bid: US rates took cues from German Bunds in early London trade, rallied on weak ZEW current Conditions -45.8. Tsy futures traded back to last week's pre-FOMC minutes levels: 30YY falling to 3.0833% in the first half.
  • Large Block buys in 2s (37.5k) and 5s (15.1k) earlier. Pre-auction short sets ahead US Tsy $33B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CEP2) at 1300ET.
  • Earlier comments from Richmond Fed's Barkin ('24 voter) appears to see increased difficulty at managing a soft-landing in the economy when updating remarks from a Jun 21 speech called the Recession Question.
  • Reminder: Earnings season kicks off this week, with financials and banks the early focus. Just over 5% of the S&P 500 by market cap are due to report, with the releases in focus including JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon, BlackRock, Citigroup, State Street, UnitedHealth and Wells Fargo.
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