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Background For Upcoming PCE and ECI Data

US DATA
  • Core PCE: yesterday’s Q1 advance data (4.94% vs cons 4.7%) suggest upside risk for today’s March print. Under the unrealistic assumption of no revisions and it all lands in March, core PCE would print 0.50% M/M but we wait to see how the relative strength is spread across months.
  • NWM expect a spread with only some scope for upside risk to their 0.3% call for March. Similar story for MS who have a rounded 0.3% reading in the Bloomberg survey but saw the PCE beat as consistent with their forecast of 4.92% for Q1.
  • ECI: Seen rising 1.1% non-annualized in Q1 after the 0.97% of Q4, i.e. off the 1.3-1.4 highs from 1H22 but still asking a lot from productivity growth to be consistent with the inflation target. Q4 saw a broadly similar theme in the underlying wages & salaries component (1.04% Q/Q after 1.32%) with private wages & salaries also 1.03% Q/Q.
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