Baht Continues To Rally, Mixed USD/Asia Trends Elsewhere

USD/Asia pairs have been mixed today, albeit with baht continuing to recover. Elsewhere, overall moves have been modest. This comes despite generally positive equity tones in the region, although we do have the US CPI print later. Still to come today is Indian CPI and IP figures. Tomorrow, we have the Singapore MAS decision, along with China inflation and trade figures.

• USD/CNH has once again held very tight ranges, last near 7.3000. The CNY fixing was steady, but the error term re-widened, while HK and mainland equities have risen. State buying of local China banks has certainly aided sentiment, but has not benefited the FX.
• 1 Month USD/KRW has remained within recent ranges. The earlier move above 1341 was faded, but moves sub 1336 have been supported. Onshore equities have continued to recover, up a further 0.80%, amid stronger tech related sentiment more broadly. Still, offshore investors are not participating, with a further -$131.4mn in outflows so far today.
• USD/TWD has recovered some ground today, rising 0.12% so far to put the pair back near 32.15. We are down from session highs above 32.20. It comes despite a beat from September exports late yesterday, (+3.4% y/y). All else equal a better export backdrop should aid the TWD outlook. Local equities remain firmer as well (+0.85%), while yesterday saw a chunky +$728.2mn of offshore inflows.
• The baht continues to outperform, rising a further 0.75% in the first part of trade. This puts the pair back into the 36.10/15 region, which is near late September levels. We are comfortably below the 20-day EMA (36.44), with the 50-day back at 35.89 and potentially the next downside target. Outside of the broader USD pull back, the baht is benefiting from local equities on a firmer footing. The local index rose 1.50% yesterday (it is flat in the first part of trade today), while offshore investors bought $80mn of local shares, bringing week to date flows to +$125.5mn. If maintained this would be the strongest pace of inflows since May this year.
• The Rupee has opened dealing in line with yesterday's closing levels, sitting at 83.15/16, in a muted start to Thursdays trading. In yesterdays dealing USD/INR printed a 2 week low before support came in at the 20-Day EMA (83.14) and losses were pared as broader USD trends dominated flows. The pair finished dealing down ~0.1%. On tap today we have September CPI, the figure is expected to tick lower and back into the RBIs target band at 5.40% Y/Y.The prior was 6.83%. August Industrial Production is also due, a rise of 9.1% Y/Y is expected.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed in early dealing on Thursday and remains well within recent ranges. The measure sits ~0.4% below the top of the band. USD/SGD is holding below the 20-Day EMA ($1.3651), support has come at ahead of $1.36 as the pair consolidates in a narrow range this morning. We sit at $1.3615/20, ~0.1% below opening levels. Due early in tomorrow's session is the latest MAS Monetary Policy Statement, all 18 economists in the Bloomberg survey expect no change to policy and see no change to the $NEER policy band. Also on the wires is the Advance read of Q3 GDP, a 0.4% Y/Y rise is expected.
• USD/MYR continues to consolidate in narrow ranges, there have been little follow through on moves in recent dealing. The pair has trimmed some of yesterday's losses alongside an uptick in US Tsy Yields and last prints at 4.7180/4.7210, ~0.1% higher. Industrial Production fell 0.3% Y/Y in August, a fall of 2% had been expected.