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Baht Plays Catch Up With USD Weakness, Higher Trade Surplus Also Helps

THB

The baht is sharply stronger in the first part of trade today. The currency is up over 1% against the USD. This puts us back near 36.11. Whilst part of this reflects catch up to USD weakness (as onshore markets were shut yesterday), the just released trade data has given the currency another lift.

  • Current USD/THB levels put us back close to October lows in the pair. We are back sub the 20-day EMA (near 36.39), while the 50-day is just under 36.00.
  • The customs trade data showed an upside surprise for exports (+2.10%y/y, versus -1.75% forecast), while imports were weaker than expected (-8.3% y/y, versus -5.55% forecast). This result saw a healthy trade surplus delivered of just over $2bn ($400mn was the forecast).
  • The surplus is still sub earlier 2023 highs, but a better than expected export result is consistent with what other Asian currencies have delivered so far this month.
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