Baht Price Action Trapped In Descending Channel

Spot USD/THB has shed a handful of pips and last sits -0.015 at THB31.355. A descending channel has crystallised over the last month or so and the rate rejected its ceiling this morning.

• A clean break above channel top at May 17 high of THB31.383 would shift topside focus to Apr 26 high of THB31.493, followed by Apr 12 cycle high of THB31.575. Conversely, a fall through the 50-DMA/May 10 low at THB31.062/31.048 would open up channel floor at THB31.000.
• The gov't eased some restrictions in Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samutprakarn and will allow restaurants in these regions to offer dine-in service at limited capacity. As a reminder, the capital and neighbouring provinces have been placed under highest-level curbs.
• Thailand's quarterly GDP report headlines the local docket today. BBG median forecast is a 3.3% annual contraction, with estimates ranging between a 1.6% and 5.5% decline. Morgan Stanley wrote that they expect improvement in fixed capex & goods exports coupled with softer private consumption & services.
• Following that, focus turns to customs trade data & update on foreign reserves, due Friday.