Baht Shrugs Off Thailand's Trade Data, Eyes BoT FX Rhetoric

Spot USD/THB has wavered within a narrow range today, the pair last trades at THB30.21, little changed on the day. The rate is testing the 23.6% recovery of the Sep 28 - Dec 18 slide at THB30.23 and a break here would open up Nov 24 high of THB30.43. Conversely, a retreat under Dec 18 low of THB29.76 would signal that bears remain in control.

• Thailand's gov't released a statement Tuesday after the weekly cabinet meeting, noting that it expects the budget deficit to reach THV700bn in FY2022, up 15% vs. the current FY through Oct. Ministers said that GDP is forecast to contract 6% this calendar year, before rebounding 3.5%-4.5% in 2021 and rising a further 3%-4% in 2022. The inflation target for 2021 will be left at 1%-3%.
• The cabinet OK'd the Labour Ministry's proposal to distribute relief payments among insured workers from high-risk provinces, who were made jobless due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Meanwhile, the authorities continue to watch the Covid-19 outbreak in Samut Sakhon. A Commerce Ministry off'l said assistance could be provided to regional shrimp farmers, while in a Tuesday address PM Prayuth floated the idea of further restrictions.
• Thailand's trade surplus shrank more than expected to $53mn from $2.047bn (vs. exp. of $1.720nb). Headline print was underpinned by a smaller than exp. slowdown in the decline in exports and a larger than forecast moderation in the pace of fall in imports.
• Focus moves to the BoT MonPol decision, due later today (see earlier bullets for our preview). The announcement will be scrutinised for any fresh insights re: THB. Elsewhere, Thai PM Prayuth discusses FY2022 budget today.