Baht Slips On Phuket Mobility Curbs, Downgrades To Economic Projections

Spot USD/THB trades +0.023 at THB32.898, holding this week's range despite yesterday's downgrades to the government's economic forecasts and Phuket's decision to impose curbs on travel into the island. That being said, the baht is among regional underperformers as we type.

• Phuket restricted movement of travellers from other Thai provinces into the resort island from Aug 3 to 16 amid an upsurge in Covid-19 cases. Thailand declared 17,345 new Covid-19 infections and 117 deaths today, with the current wave of infections casting doubt over the prospects for a relatively quick reopening of the critical tourism industry.
• BoT Senior Director Don warned that Thailand's household debt is "a big time bomb" and may reach a record high of 93% of domestic GDP by the end of the year. Don added that official data underestimates the severity of the household debt situation, as it doesn't include ~THB500bn in loans from village funds or student loan funds. According to the BoT official, a broad-based debt default has been averted thanks to low interest rate environment and debt relief measures.
• Thailand's manufacturing production index will hit the wires within hours (it is expected to have risen 19.15% Y/Y in June, per BBG consensus forecast), with BoP current account balance and trade balance due later in the day. Worth noting that next week will see the BoT deliver their next monetary policy decision.
• Press briefings from Dep PM & Foreign Min on vaccine procurement and from the Federation of Thai Industries on measures to contain the outbreak in the m'fing sector may provide some interest today.
• Bulls look for a break above Jul 27 cycle high of THB32.990, which would bring Apr 2, 2020 high of THB33.177 into view. On the flip side, losses past Jul 20 low of THB32.780 would expose Jul 12/13 lows of THB32.540.