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Baht Tops Asia EM Scoreboard This Month, Domestic Data Eyed

THB

Spot USD/THB trades +0.155 at THB36.505 driven by the overnight rebound in the greenback. From a technical standpoint, the next bullish target is provided by Jul 21 cycle high of THB36.945. Bears look for losses past the 50-DMA (THB35.935) and towards key support from Aug 11 low of THB35.160.

  • With August drawing to an end, the baht is on track to finish this month as the best performer in emerging Asia and the only currency in the region, save for the HKD, to outperform the U.S. dollar.
  • Foreign demand for Thai stocks returned Tuesday after a two-day steak of net outflows. Offshore buyers purchased a net $56.4mn in local equities, while the SET index rose 0.8%. The recovery in foreign investor demand over the past couple of months or so has occurred in tandem with an advance in Thailand's benchmark stock index (see Fig. 1).
  • Latest comments from Thai officials signalled optimism re: tourism recovery. The government's spokesman said foreign arrivals are expected to be 7.5mn in the second half of the year, generating about THB400bn in revenue.
  • We will get the updates on Thailand's m'fing production (BBG est. +8.40% Y/Y) and BoP current account balance (BBG est. -$1.755bn) later today.
  • Apart from aforesaid data releases, an address from FinMin Arkhom on "Thailand moving into next chapter" will provide some interest today.

Fig. 1: SET Index vs. Thailand Stock Exchange Foreign Investors Net Flows

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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