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Baht Weakness Linked To Activity Of Foreign Investors

THB

Spot USD/THB operates +0.018 at THB33.375 at typing, in spite of overnight greenback weakness. Bulls keep an eye on Oct 18 high of THB33.488 and a break here would shift focus to Oct 6 high/round figure of THB33.990/34.000. On the downside, the 50-DMA (today at THB33.202) has provided formidable support over the last few days. A dip through that level would expose Sep 23 low of THB33.155.

  • The baht has been the worst performer in the region this year amid talk of speculative activity of foreign investors pressuring the currency. The Bangkok Post cited an analyst with Kasikornbank as noting that foreign investors expect baht depreciation going forward, owing to Thailand's twin deficits of budget balance and current account. Bloomberg observed that USD/THB 3-month implied volatility (last 6.85%) has been creeping higher since mid-year, even as similar gauges on most other USD/Asia crosses have been stable.
  • BOT Asst Gov Rung Malikamas will hold a briefing on financial measures to support the economy at 11:00 ICT/05:00 BST. Looking further afield, Thailand's Customs Dept will publish monthly trade data on Friday.

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