MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Threat Builds for Bunds

Price Signal Summary – Bearish Threat Builds for Bunds

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and signals remain bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement.                               
• EURUSD has started this week’s session on a firmer note. Note that the trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a downtrend. Resistance to watch is 1.0772, the 50-day EMA. EURGBP has traded above last week’s high of 0.8478 (Jun 24). The climb signals scope for a stronger corrective cycle and the cross is approaching a firm resistance at 0.8503, the 50-day EMA. AUDUSD is unchanged and still trades inside a range that highlights two key levels; resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important  short-term directional triggers.
• A bear threat in Gold remains present and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2318.4. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded higher last week. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been pierced.
• Bund futures traded lower last week and have started this week’s session on a bearish note. The gap lower today undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.84, a Fibonacci retracement. A pullback in Gilt futures is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and recent gains resulted in a print above 98.89, the May 16 high. A clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Tests Resistance       

• RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
• RES 2:  1.0791/0820 50.0% and 61.8% of the Jun 4 - 26 downleg  
• RES 1: 1.0772/76 50-day EMA / Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.0768 @ 07:543 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 1.0711/0666  Intraday low / Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2  

EURUSD has started this week’s session on a firmer note. Note that the trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a downtrend. Resistance to watch is 1.0772, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear would threaten the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 1.0820, 61.8% of the Jun 4 - 26 downleg. The bear trigger lies at 1.0666, Jun 26 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows       

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2740/2860 High Jun 19 / 12 And the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.2658 @ 06:12 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 1.2613 Low June 27
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15 
• SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support     

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Key support at 1.2669, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared, signalling scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2584, the May 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, the Jun 12 high, would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2740, the Jun 19 high.   

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA                        

• RES 4: 0.8568 High May 20  
• RES 3: 0.8550 61.8% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.8546 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8503 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8496 @ 06:39 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25    
• SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing 

EURGBP has traded above last week’s high of 0.8478 (Jun 24). The climb signals scope for a stronger corrective cycle and the cross is approaching a firm resistance at 0.8503, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would undermine the recent bearish theme. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger.   

USDJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs    

• RES 4: 163.362.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing      
• RES 3: 162.27 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 161.50 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 161.27 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 161.00 @ 07:01 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 159.62/158.55 Low Jun 26 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 157.09 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low  
• SUP 3: 156.49 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4 
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and has opened 161.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial key support to watch is 158.55, the 20-day EMA. 

EURJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 174.77 1.382 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 174.24 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 173.98 1.236 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing   
• RES 1: 173.47 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 173.26 @ 08:07 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 171.45 Low Jun 28 
• SUP 2: 170.35 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 169.12/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14 
• SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16 

The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross has started this week’s session on a bullish note as it continues to appreciate. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of key resistance and the bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are set on 173.98, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 170.35, the 20-day EMA.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight An Uptrend     

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3                  
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg   
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12  
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.6670 @ 07:58 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support 
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg 

AUDUSD is unchanged and still trades inside a range that highlights two key levels; resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important  short-term directional triggers. Clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. A break through 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. Looking at MA studies, they are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend.   

USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now                

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance     
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3734/3792 High Jun 27 / Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3667 @ 08:01 BST Jul 1 
• SUP 1: 1.3626/3590 Low Jun 25 / Low May 16 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

USDCAD remains above its most recent lows. Price has recently traded through the Jun 12 low of 1.3680, and 1.3677, the 50-day EMA. The break signals scope for a continuation lower, potentially towards key support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. Clearance of this level would threaten a bullish theme. The medium-term trend outlook is bullish and a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 1.3846, Apr 16 high. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bearish Pullback Extends                                   

• RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25 
• RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28  
• RES 1: 131.80 50-day EMA                    
• PRICE: 131.23 @ 05:30 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 130.84 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally           
• SUP 2: 130.28 76.4%% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally 
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger  

Bund futures traded lower last week and have started this week’s session  on a bearish note. The gap lower today undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.84, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would further strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 132.24, Friday’s high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential bullish reversal.  

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Gaps Lower                                        

• RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24     
• RES 3: 1116.690 High Jun 28   
• RES 1: 116.392 20-day EMA            
• PRICE: 116.220 @ 05:51 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 116.080 Intraday low    
• SUP 2: 115.862 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally    
• SUP 3: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support 

Bobl futures have started the week on a bearish note and gapped lower today. The move down has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines the recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a deeper pullback The move down opens 115.862, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA                            

• RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21       
• RES 1: 105.780 High Jun 28 
• PRICE: 105.605 @ 06:10 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 105.570 Intraday low       
• SUP 2: 105.542 50.0% retraceme of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 105.440 61.8% retraceme of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle   
• SUP 4: 105.375 Low Jun 13   

Schatz futures have traded lower today and the contract has breached support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.632. This undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 105.440, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a developing bearish threat. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A breach would be bullish.                     

GILT TECHS: (U4) Trades Through Trendline Support                                

• RES 4: 100.21 1.50 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing  
• RES 3: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing 
• RES 1: 98.24/99.25 High Jun 28 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
• PRICE: 97.32 @ 08:11 BST Jul 1 
• SUP 1:97.28 50.0% retracement of the May 29 -     
• SUP 2: 96.84 Low Jun 12    
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 95.58 Low May 31  

A pullback in Gilt futures is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and recent gains resulted in a print above 98.89, the May 16 high. A clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions. However, support to watch lies at 97.60, a trendline. Currently, price is trading below this line and a clear break would threaten the bull cycle and open 96.94, the Jun 12 low. Initial resistance is at 98.24, Friday’s high.  

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bearish Outlook 

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 116.27/117.09 20-day EMA / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 115.45 @ 07:08 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 115.12/114.35 Low Jun 28 / 11 and key support 
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures traded lower last week. The bear reversal from the Jun 5 high, confirmed the end of the correction between May 29 - Jun 5. This resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low. The contract did also rebound from the Jun 11 low. Key resistance is 117.62, Jun 5 high. A break would be bullish. Initial firm resistance is 117.09, the Jun 21 high.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Recovery Mode     

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6       
• RES 2: 5092.00 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 5039.84 61.8% retracement of May 16-Jun 14 sell-off   
• PRICE: 5008.00 @ 06:29 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 4915.00/4860.00 Low Jun 28 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support   
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing    

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would be a positive development. For bears, a reversal lower would signal a resumption of the bearish corrective cycle and open 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support.     

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Trend Signals Point North 

• RES 4: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5594.66 2.618 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5588.00 High Jun 20  
• PRICE: 5553.75 @ 14:25 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 5484.21/5391.82 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support 
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and signals remain bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight positive sentiment. Sights are on 5594.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 5484..21, the 20-day EMA.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play              

• RES 4: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing  
• RES 3: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $86.33 -76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg 
• RES 1: $86.18 - High Jun 28    
• PRICE: $85.49 @ 07:08 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: $82.87 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4  
• SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support  

Brent futures are unchanged and remain in a bull-mode condition. Recent gains resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at $84.25, the May 29 high. This undermines a bearish theme and instead signals scope for a bullish continuation near-term. Sights are on $86.33, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is $82.87, the 50-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early reversal signal.   

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat                 

• RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $85.24 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $82.80 - High Apr 26   
• PRICE: $82.04 @ 07:16 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: $78.86 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support 

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded higher last week. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break would open $85.24, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $78.86, the 50-day EMA. A break would be seen as a potential reversal signal.        

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present    

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7               
• PRICE: $2327.2 @ 07:29 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7       
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28  
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

A bear threat in Gold remains present and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2318.4. A clear break of this EMA would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would also strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.    

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Exposed                 

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $30.853/32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger / High Jun 21               
• PRICE: $29.135 @ 08:03 BST Jul 1 
• SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26              
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Support in Silver at $28.659, the Jun 13 low and bear trigger, has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open $27.971, the May 13 low. Note that moving average studies are in  a bull-mode set-up. This highlights a medium-term uptrend and suggests that the bear leg since $32.518, is likely a correction. First resistance to watch is $30.853, the Jun 21 high.