Bank desk views on today's Q4 CPI.........>

AUSTRALIA: Bank desk views on today's Q4 CPI print:

- ANZ: We exp. +0.4% Q/Q, +1.6% Y/Y. A sharp petrol price fall is the largest

-ve for the headline, while retail price deflation continues to drag. Domestic

air travel & tobacco prices will make +ve contributions. Core prices exp. +0.5%

Q/Q, +1.8% Y/Y. We see the risk to core inflation as very much to the downside.

- NAB: We exp. +0.3% Q/Q +1.6% Y/Y, although we note some upside risk following

NZ's CPI data. Both our top-down & bottom-up models suggest inflation softened

in Q4. Our below-market forecast largely reflects the decline in fuel prices,

lower fruit prices & the weak price growth in rents & new dwellings. Risks to

our forecast are centred on: the ever-volatile prices of fruits & vegetables;

softness in rents & new dwellings, whether pressures to contain energy prices

were effective, &; the extent of discounting in motor vehicles & household goods

- Westpac: We exp. +0.3% Q/Q, 1.5% Y/Y. Falling auto fuel, moderating housing

costs & a lack of pass-through from a weaker AUD are more than offsetting a

strong rise in tobacco prices. Forecasters have overestimated the quarterly rise

in the CPI for every quarter in the last 2 years.