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Bank Earnings, U.Mich and Fedspeak Come Into Focus

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  • Cash Tsys see recent cheapening off highs to leave a twist steepening on the day, with the front end just holding richer but cheaper from the 5Y onwards. Overnight trade has been mixed, under pressure earlier as weakness in JGBs spilled over before more two-way moves in European hours.
  • It leaves yields at the low end of yesterday’s post-CPI ranges having earlier extended new lows before reversing, with 2YY -0.5bps at 4.140%, 5YY +1.0bps at 3.545%, 10YY +2.7bps at 3.465% and 30YY +3.2bps at 3.609%.
  • Bank/financials are kicking off the earnings season today with focus later shifting to the preliminary January survey for U.Mich and its inflation expectations. Less attention on import prices for Dec coming after CPI this month.
  • TYH3 trades 3+ ticks lower at 115-04, off earlier highs of 115-15+ that extended yesterday’s late high of 115-13+ having pierced the bull trigger at 115-11+ (Dec 13 high). A clear break could open 115-26 (2.00 proj of Oct 21 – 27 – Nov 3 low).
  • Data: International trade prices, Dec (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey, Jan prelim (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Kashkari (’23 voter) at 1000ET and Harker (’23 voter) at 1520ET with text.
  • No issuance.
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  • Cash Tsys see recent cheapening off highs to leave a twist steepening on the day, with the front end just holding richer but cheaper from the 5Y onwards. Overnight trade has been mixed, under pressure earlier as weakness in JGBs spilled over before more two-way moves in European hours.
  • It leaves yields at the low end of yesterday’s post-CPI ranges having earlier extended new lows before reversing, with 2YY -0.5bps at 4.140%, 5YY +1.0bps at 3.545%, 10YY +2.7bps at 3.465% and 30YY +3.2bps at 3.609%.
  • Bank/financials are kicking off the earnings season today with focus later shifting to the preliminary January survey for U.Mich and its inflation expectations. Less attention on import prices for Dec coming after CPI this month.
  • TYH3 trades 3+ ticks lower at 115-04, off earlier highs of 115-15+ that extended yesterday’s late high of 115-13+ having pierced the bull trigger at 115-11+ (Dec 13 high). A clear break could open 115-26 (2.00 proj of Oct 21 – 27 – Nov 3 low).
  • Data: International trade prices, Dec (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey, Jan prelim (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Kashkari (’23 voter) at 1000ET and Harker (’23 voter) at 1520ET with text.
  • No issuance.