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Bank of America: Catch-Up Effect in Hiring May be Slowing

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • After nearly 6 months of solid gains, Bank of America posit Friday's April jobs report miss "provides evidence that the 'catch-up' effect in hiring may be slowing. In our view, this is not an outright negative sign for the economy. As high-touch services employment returns to pre-pandemic trends, employment growth should slow naturally whether monetary policy is restrictive or not."
  • "As long as layoffs remain low and job separation rates remain near post-pandemic lows, a moderation in employment growth should not be viewed as sending a negative signal for the outlook. Yes, it should reinforce the view that the next move out of the Fed is a rate cut versus a rate hike, but we think it reinforces a move to a gradual cutting cycle as opposed to steep cuts."
  • "Although we think risks are still in the direction of sticky inflation, we think the next move out of the Fed will be a gradual easing cycle. We continue to expect the first rate cut in December, followed by four-25bp rate cuts in 2025. We look for a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75% to be reached in mid-2026."
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