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Bank Pocztowy Expect NBP To Deliver 25bp Rate Cuts In September & October

NBP

Following the release of Poland's flash CPI reading, Bank Pocztowy write that although inflation remained at a double-digit level in August and marginally exceeded the consensus forecast, it should ease to around +9.0% Y/Y in September.

  • In their view, these expectations coupled with weak data signals from the real economy (e.g. retail sales, industrial output) and a weaker Q2 GDP outturn than projected by NBP staff (-0.6% Y/Y vs. -0.1% expected) will likely persuade the majority in the MPC to cut interest rates at the next meeting.
  • Based on this assessment, Bank Pocztowy expect a 25bp rate cut next week, followed by another 25bp cut in October.
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