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Bank Stocks in Focus Ahead of Stress Test Results

EQUITIES
  • This week, the Federal Reserve release the results of their stress tests on US banking institutions, due at 1630ET/2130BST on Thursday 24th June.
  • The Fed outlined the adverse economic scenarios that bank operations would be tested against in February's release: 2021 Stress Test Scenario - found here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressrel...
  • The adverse scenario is designed to replicate 'a severe global recession accompanied by a period of heightened stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets.'
  • The scenario sees US real GDP growth fall 5.5% in Q1 2021, trickling through to real disposable income contracting by 9.9% in Q2. House prices are seen falling over 20% over two years in the adverse scenario, with commercial prices shedding near 40%.
  • The results could prove key for markets at this juncture, with analysts expecting the Fed to allow banks to resume both share buybacks and payment of dividends should they pass.
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