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Banks, Real Estate and Credit Quality; Lessons From The Week

FINANCIALS

Banks, real estate and credit quality. Taking a step back, what have we learnt this week from the financial system as indicators to wider corporate credit health:

  • Nordics banks have generally produced good returns with continuing low credit costs and trajectories of non-performers that were unsurprisingly modest.
  • Two big Spanish banks showing upgrades for equity watchers and, again, only modest impacts from credit and Deutsche Bank showing a mild credit deterioration but still with the confidence to upgrade equity payout.
  • BNP and ING both disappointed, largely on revenues and capital levels, rather than asset quality
  • Finally, Danske showing stabilisation of credit trends (equity +7% today) and good capital levels and Caixabank with similar credit metrics.

EUR financials (sub) bond index does sit meaningfully tighter from the Oct-23 wides and has tightened back all the performance given away in first two weeks of January. But, plot sub and senior on the same chart and there’s quite a divergence now evident.

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