MNI BRIEF: Inflation Risks Now Shifted To Downside-BOE Ramsden

MNI: Goolsbee Says Stalled Inflation Means Wait Before Moving

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 19

MNI BRIEF: China Hog Market More Balanced In Q2 - Ministry

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 619; OIL RIGS 511; GAS RIGS 106

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, UK Synd W/C 22 Apr, BoE APF Mon

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Banorte Says Factors Driving 75BP Hike Identical To September Meeting

MEXICO
  • Banorte expect Banxico to increase the reference rate to 10.00%, which implies a fourth consecutive 75bps increase, validating their expectation since late September. Factors driving the decision would be practically the same as in the last meeting, noting: (1) The relative monetary stance with the Fed; and (2) additional inflationary pressures.
  • A change of this magnitude would validate the view of a predictable and prudent central bank, which Banorte believe has been key to foster stability in local assets in an environment of higher global financial volatility. They consider that the vote will be unanimous.
  • Banorte believe the decision will reinforce the hawkish tone from the institution, despite the possibility of opening the door to a moderation in the pace and adjustments to the forward guidance, similar to the Fed. This would be consistent with the signals from members over the need to debate which the adequate level of the terminal rate and the space left to reach it.
  • In their view, this could indicate that future moves might be smaller. With this in mind, Banorte reiterate their call of a +50pbs hike in December, taking the rate to 10.50% at the end of the year, with an additional cumulative tightening of +50bpbs in 1Q23, resulting in a 11.00% terminal rate for this cycle.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.