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BanRep Analyst Reviews (2/2)

COLOMBIA
  • JPMorgan: Although BanRep came below JPM’s forecast for the October meeting, for now they leave their 12.5% call for the terminal rate unchanged. JPM still see a 100bp hike to 12% in the December meeting, and now pencil in a 50bp final hike in January. As noted in their recent report and have discussed earlier in the hiking cycle, JPM think BanRep should be treating as a “permanent” shock the higher Colombia risk premium until there is more solid evidence that the market has overshot.
  • Scotiabank Expect A Final 50bps Rise In December: The data-dependent approach remains as the governor said the Board wants to see incoming information during November ahead of December’s meeting. Scotiabank’s expectation now is of a 50bps hike in December, but again showing a data-dependent mode. The balance of risk will be key to anticipating a potential pause in the hiking cycle.
  • *TD see space for further hikes in the following meetings as real rate has just entered into restrictive territory. FI and FX response should be constructive, TD think, especially after comments made by FinMin Ocampo reassuring that FX intervention will not happen and that there is no evidence of lack of liquidity in FX future market.
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