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COLOMBIA: BanRep Expected To Deliver Further Rate Cut Today

COLOMBIA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • With activity remaining weak, BanRep is expected to cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 9.25% at 1800GMT(1300ET). However, Finance Minister Guevara suggested recently that the central bank could pause its rate-cutting cycle this month, and elevated inflation pressures, a larger-than-expected minimum wage hike and ongoing fiscal risks, suggest that the debate could be between another 25bp cut and no change. Further ahead, the appointment of two new board members raises the prospect of a dovish shift in coming meetings.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • Before the rate decision, December labour market data will be released at 1500GMT(1000ET), which are expected to show an increase in the urban unemployment rate to 9.1% last month, from 8.0%.
  • In other news, Barclays has cut its recommendation on Colombia dollar bonds to underweight from marketweight, amid the recent worse-than-expected fiscal data. They say that increased fiscal uncertainty implies potential funding needs for this year and the risk of a credit-rating downgrade. They also expect the central bank to remain on hold later today.
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  • With activity remaining weak, BanRep is expected to cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 9.25% at 1800GMT(1300ET). However, Finance Minister Guevara suggested recently that the central bank could pause its rate-cutting cycle this month, and elevated inflation pressures, a larger-than-expected minimum wage hike and ongoing fiscal risks, suggest that the debate could be between another 25bp cut and no change. Further ahead, the appointment of two new board members raises the prospect of a dovish shift in coming meetings.
    • The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • Before the rate decision, December labour market data will be released at 1500GMT(1000ET), which are expected to show an increase in the urban unemployment rate to 9.1% last month, from 8.0%.
  • In other news, Barclays has cut its recommendation on Colombia dollar bonds to underweight from marketweight, amid the recent worse-than-expected fiscal data. They say that increased fiscal uncertainty implies potential funding needs for this year and the risk of a credit-rating downgrade. They also expect the central bank to remain on hold later today.