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BanRep Minutes of March Meeting Published

COLOMBIA
  • Overnight, Colombia’s central bank published the minutes of the March meeting. Link here: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/minutas-banrep-30-03-2023
  • Overall, the minutes indicated that favourable signs suggest that the inflation rate is approaching its ceiling, from which the decline expected for 2023 would begin and that inflation expectations are beginning to incorporate this positive news.
    • “The members of the Board agreed that, there being diverse opinions, a 25 bp increase in the policy interest rate reflects their main concerns.” Further decisions by the Board will depend on new information available, highlighting the importance of upcoming inflation data prints, starting with the March reading tomorrow.
  • Itaú noted that while the minutes signal the next policy move will be highly data dependent, elevated inflation expectations suggest rate cuts are not expected in the near term. While they have a terminal rate call of 13.25%, if inflation falls in March (they estimate a steady 13.3%) and inflation expectations continue to trend down, risks tilt towards a pause at the next meeting (April 28).
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