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BanRep Raises CPI Forecast, June Exports, BanRep Minutes Due Today

COLOMBIA
  • In its Q3 monetary policy report on Friday, BanRep raised its 2024 CPI inflation forecast by 20bp to 5.7%, amidst food price pressures, delaying the convergence of inflation to target to Q325 (vs. Q225 previously). However, inflation is expected to be around 3% by end-2025. As noted last week, BanRep expects the economy to grow by 1.8% this year (vs. 1.4% prior), but 2025 growth is now seen at 2.7%, down from 3.2% previously. The 2024-2025 real neutral rate estimates were unchanged.
  • Goldman Sachs notes the hawkish policy signals in the QIR, reflected in the higher inflation forecasts and less slack in the economy in H224. They do not interpret the signals in the QIR as hinting that the staff is leaning towards an acceleration in the pace of cuts and maintain their base case of 50bp cuts in upcoming meetings.
  • Today, June exports data will be published at 1600BST(1100ET), with analysts looking for a figure of $4bn, down from $4.45bn in May. This will be followed by the minutes to last week’s BanRep monetary policy meeting, when the central bank delivered another 50bp cut to 10.75% (2300BST/1800ET).
    • For a full MNI review of that meeting, with analyst views, see here.
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