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Banxico Expected To Cut Later This Month, US NFP Due At 1330GMT

MEXICO
  • The decline in CPI inflation in February has confirmed scope for Banxico to begin its easing cycle at its March 21 MPC meeting. Pantheon expect a 25bp cut this month due to the continued fall in CPI inflation and expect a trend of gradual easing this year. They note that unfavourable base effects may keep inflation in the 4-5% range through H1, but still see it ending the year at 3.8%. JP Morgan also think that the lack of any surprise in Feb CPI removes the last potential hurdle for Banxico to begin cutting rates later this month.
  • Data wise, the focus will be on US non-farm payrolls, coming up at 1330GMT(0830ET). Consensus is for payrolls growth to slow to 200k from January's bumper 353k reading, while the unemployment rate holds at 3.7%. There is nothing in the domestic calendar for today, with attention next week turning to Jan IP on Tuesday.
  • In other news, the finance ministry said that foreign direct investment could exceed $36 billion in Mexico this year, according to a report from Reforma.

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