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Banxico Inflation Report Due Tomorrow

MEXICO
  • Banxico will publish its Quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow, with updated forecasts for growth and inflation over the relevant monetary policy horizon.
  • Goldman Sachs expect Banxico to revise up its inflation forecasts meaningfully, as per the recent MPC meeting, with convergence to target now expected in Q4 2025, vs Q2 2025 in the previous QIR. They expect the balance of risks to inflation to remain biased to the upside. They also expect the GDP growth forecast to be downgraded, given the deeper than anticipated deceleration of real activity. GS will be paying particular attention to the revised output gap and labour market slack forecasts which will have a bearing on the pace of rate cuts ahead.
  • JP Morgan also expect the Bank to trim its growth forecast for this year, after acknowledging a disappointing 4Q23 and a soft start to 2024. On inflation, they believe that the benign core CPI composition in May’s preliminary CPI report will figure importantly, in their view. They note that Banxico has put special emphasis on services inflation since last year and data on this front were quite encouraging.
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