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Banxico Minutes Due Thursday

MEXICO
  • As well as tonight’s FOMC minutes, Banxico will publish the minutes from the Nov 10 MPC meeting on Thursday.
    • At that meeting, Banxico hiked the policy rate by 75bp to 10.0% in a split 4-1 decision with deputy governor Gerardo Esquivel dissenting for a milder 50bp hike.
  • Goldman Sachs expect the minutes to show that all directors remain concerned with inflation, particular core, and the observed further deterioration of inflation expectations. However, they expect to see different views on how far the MPC should push the current tightening cycle and the pace of upcoming rate hikes given that the policy rate is now in restrictive territory.
  • In the minutes GS will be paying particular attention to:
    • Discussion about how restrictive monetary policy should be given the inflation and growth outlook, the appropriate pace of near-term rate hikes (set of conditions that could lead the MPC to decelerate the pace of hikes), and end-cycle terminal rate.
    • How many directors are of the view that the MPC should consider decelerating the pace of rate hikes at the next meeting.
    • Discussion about the real business cycle dynamics, and how a still negative output gap and significant risk of a recession in the US could constrain the monetary policy response to the challenging inflation backdrop.
    • Discussion about the implications for domestic monetary policy setting of the FOMC signalling and expected Fed Funds rate path.
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