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Banxico Minutes Scheduled At 1500GMT / 1000ET

MEXICO
  • The central bank will publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy decision earlier this month, when it opened the door to a potential cut at the March MPC meeting. The MNI review of that meeting is here.
  • In the minutes, Goldman Sachs will be looking for any discussion around the conditions that would lead to a cut in March and how many of the five directors would be open to that. They expect the MPC to note that domestic activity slowed by more than anticipated in Q4, but that the labour market remains strong. GS expect the minutes to acknowledge progress on the disinflation front, while still noting challenges from sticky services inflation.
  • Meanwhile, JP Morgan think that the previous emphasis on disinflation gains and passive tightening suggests that most members are ready to start easing policy at the next meeting, in March. Nonetheless, they expect the minutes to be clear that Banxico will remain cautious. JPM do not expect hawkish dissenters to the tone of the statement. But if Banxico does cut in March, a non-unanimous decision should not be a surprise, in their view.
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