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Banxico Minutes: Trajectory of Rates Will Depend on Next CPI Prints

MEXICO
  • Banxico released its minutes from May 13 policy meeting, which was not 'hawkish' despite the recent rise in inflationary pressures.
  • Most of the board agreed that prudent stance is needed and the trajectory of short-term interest rates will depend strongly on future CPI prints.
  • The MXN strength against major crosses gives Banxico more time for policy manoeuvre (unlike Brazil that has started a tightening cycle as BRL weakness has intensified the inflationary pressures).
  • As the vaccination campaign has been slower in most of the EM economies, policymakers aim to keep financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economic recovery.
  • USDMXN is barely unchanged, with the pair trading at the high of its 3-day range slightly below 20. Resistance to watch on the topside stands at 20.13 (50D SMA), followed by 20.23 (100D SMA). On the downside, first support stands at 19.5.
  • It is interesting to see that Banxico was one of the two central banks that cut rates this year (25bps, as Indonesia).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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