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CHINA YUAN: Barclays expect Chinese policymakers to "tolerate additional
market-driven CNY depreciation over the coming quarters as U.S. tariffs are
imposed, economic activity continues to moderate, and downside growth risks
persist. Poor EM investor sentiment and higher USD returns are also likely to
support further CNY weakness versus the USD, and we now forecast 6.95 at year
end (6.60 previously). We do not think the reintroduction of the Counter
Cyclical Adjustment Factor indicates a desire to limit further CNY depreciation,
rather a preference for this to occur in an orderly way. We expect USDCNY to
remain around 6.95 over the forecast horizon, consistent with a stable CNY CFETS
NEER and representing c.10% depreciation since March-April 2018, more than
offsetting the effects of US tariffs implemented to date on the price of Chinese
exports for US consumers."