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Barclays: Look for 9-0 vote for 25bp hike but risk of 2-way dissents

BOE
  • “We think the BoE will maintain its back-to-back hiking cycle for now, but the rhetoric around its policy outlook is likely to become even more dovish. We expect the vote for a 25bp hike to be unanimous, but with some risk of a vote for status quo or a 50bp hike.”
  • “We do not expect anything on quantitative tightening (QT) at this stage, but rather over the summer if rates reach 1%. Even then the MPC has been very cautious to date around QT, so we would expect some delay between rates hitting 1%, a QT strategy being announced and actually implementation”
  • “By the end of the year, we think electricity, gas and oil prices could push headline inflation up by an unprecedented 300bp… fundamentally, the energy price shock is essentially a (relative) price level shock and existing buffering between in- and output prices, final prices and wages, etc mean that inflation should stabilise rather than spin out of control. However, inflation persistence and (partial) indexation along the price formation chain may give the false perception of a change in inflation regime, and trigger a BoE reaction to counter expectations of permanently higher inflation.”
  • “While we believe the latest developments have not weakened the case for back-to-back hikes in the near term, we think the case for a 50bp move is now flimsy. Also, the risk of over-reacting is now more pronounced due to new downside risks to medium-term growth”
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