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Barclays: NFP Strike Adjustments Imply Stronger Readings Than Other Models

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Barclays forecast NFP growth of 225k with private payrolls increasing 200k.
  • “The swing from October is amplified by strike effects, which weighed down the October print and will work in the opposite direction in November as roughly 46k workers return from strikes by the UAW and Screen Actors Guild (SAG).”
  • “With our strike adjustments, the nonfarm payroll forecast is above the median of the range of forecasts from the various specifications of our monthly models (40-228k), which work from weekly data on initial unemployment insurance claims, continuing claims, and other employment indicators.”
  • “Meanwhile, we expect AHE to retain its +0.3% m/ m (4.0% y/y) pace from October. We also forecast a rebound in the workweek to 34.4 hours, partly due to the unwinding of strike effects.”
  • “On the household side of the report, we expect the unemployment rate to edge down 0.1pp, to 3.8%, with the participation rate remaining constant.”
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