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AUSSIE: Barclays note that "a high-yielding USD is providing increasing
competition for global portfolio flows & is likely to keep downward pressure on
the AUD, given Australia's dependence on global savings. Escalating US-China
trade tensions are also likely to contribute to AUD underperformance versus both
G10 & EMFX, given the country's large exports to China and the negative effects
of slowing Chinese activity on global commodity prices. The high quality of
Australia's exports, however, may provide some offset. Australia's agricultural
exports are largely consumed by China's middle class, a group that is likely to
continue to grow, and if an increasing portion of US agricultural exports to
China are subject to tariffs, demand for Australian alternatives may increase.
Domestically, GDP growth is relatively strong (above potential), but consumption
remains cautious & inflation low. AU house price pressures continue to moderate
in response to macroprudential. The AU labour market continues to exhibit little
sign of capacity pressure. Given the continued lack of inflation pressure, we do
not expect the RBA to hike until H120, which implies the U.S.-Australia policy
rate differential is likely to widen."