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Barclays on Copom Minutes - Due Top Of The Hour

BRAZIL
  • Barclays expect more details on the BCB’s commitment to “persist in its strategy until the disinflation process and the expectation anchoring around its targets consolidate,” possibly clarifying whether that means a higher terminal rate, its maintenance for a longer period before cuts can be entertained, or both.
  • The change from “achievement” of targets to “convergence” toward them could also be explored, perhaps confirming the intention to soon extend the horizon for monetary policy away from 2022 and into 2023.
  • Last, the board may explain why it dropped its forecast for regulated prices significantly for next year (from 5.2% to 3.8%), as that prevented the 2022 IPCA forecast from rising even more than it did according to the bank’s models (to 4.7%, from 4.1%).
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