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Barclays Raises 2024 Brent Forecast on Tighter Supply

OIL

Barclays raised its 2024 Brent price forecast to $97/bbl, up by $8/bbl previously as market balances are expected to further tighten next year, the bank said in a note.

  • The bank lowered its 2023 Brent forecast by $3/bbl to $84/bbl and kept the 4Q23 Brent forecast unchanged at $92/bbl.
  • "Slowing non-OPEC+ supply growth, driven primarily by the US, and persistent underproduction from several OPEC+ producers due to structural constraints bolsters our core thesis behind a constructive view on oil prices," the bank said.
  • Barclays forecasts a supply deficit of 670kbpd in 2023 and of 250kbpd in 2024.
  • "A tussle between key producers and consumers is visible in the G-7 efforts to cap Russian export prices and OPEC+ announcing significant voluntary adjustments to output," the bank said.
  • "The urge to keep prices in check is also visible in the tapping of strategic petroleum reserves by the US and other key consumers, the US outreach to Venezuela and a potential informal agreement with Iran."

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