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Barclays Sees 50 Basis Points of South Africa Rate Hikes in 2022

SOUTH AFRICA
  • South African Reserve Bank is likely to deliver two interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each this year, driven by an uptick in core inflation in February and stabilization of economic growth in September
  • “Market pricing of some 200 bp of hikes this year, implying that the SARB may in fact step up the pace of rate hikes, thus seems excessive to us, especially if one considers that inflation will be declining in H2 22 as technical base effects from higher 2H 21 oil prices kick in”
  • Sees risk of 25 basis point increase at monetary policy committee meeting scheduled for Jan. 27Inflation rate forecast to peak at 6% in February before “decelerating meaningfully” to just above 4% at year-end
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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