Barclays write "the weakness in retail....>

AUSTRALIA: Barclays write "the weakness in retail spend will continue to be a

source of concern for the RBA, which has flagged the outlook for household

consumption as the main uncertainty in the economic outlook. On a monthly basis

in value terms, discretionary spending continues to underperform. Declines were

seen in clothing and department stores for the second consecutive month.

Experimental estimates of online retail sales turnover published by the ABS

indicate that online's share of retail sales remains at 5.6% of total retail

turnover. On a y/y basis, the value of online sales rose ~22% in January 2019.

Yesterday, Australia's Q4 GDP growth surprised on the downside, rising by 0.2%

q/q, with the economy entering a per-capita recession for the first time in

almost 13 years. We have lowered our growth forecast for 2019 to 2.3% (2.5%

earlier). With the RBA reiterating that the labour market remained the key

variable to watch and the property slump not yet having a large negative impact,

we think that any change in labour market direction would be a significant cause

of concern for the central bank. As such, we suggest watching the jobs data very

closely in the next  three months."