MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Fresh All-Time Gold High
Price Signal Summary - Fresh All-Time High In Gold
- In the equity space, this week’s recovery in S&P E-Minis highlights a bullish reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 3 - 6. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. Clearance of this level would open 5721.25, the Jul 16 high and bull trigger. Initial support is at 5519.28, the 50-day EMA. The latest move down in EUROSTOXX 50 futures resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 4686.53, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 4998.00, the Sep 3 high. First resistance is at 4865.79, the 50-day EMA. The contract has recovered from its recent lows. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme.
- In FX, EURUSD has recovered from this week’s lows. Despite these gains, a bearish corrective theme remains intact - for now. The move lower this week resulted in a breach of support at 1.1026, the Sep 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.0984 - a key support. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. A break of it would be bullish. GBPUSD has recovered from this week’s lows. The recent move down is considered corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of the downleg would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2970. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3266, Aug 27 high. First key support to watch is 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has again traded to a fresh cycle low, today. The move down this week has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 140.25, Dec 28 ‘23 low. Resistance is at 144.67, 20-day EMA.
- On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and yesterday’s gains have reinforced this theme - the metal traded to a new all-time high. This ends the recent consolidation - a pause in the uptrend - and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $2584.0, 1.764 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2501.2, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a bearish condition. Tuesday’s strong sell-off reinforces current conditions and confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. This suggests that the most recent bounce is a short-term correction. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.93 next, 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing, ahead of the psychological $60.00 handle. Firm resistance is at $71.32, the 20-day EMA.
- In the FI space, Bund futures have traded higher this week and this confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 2. The contract has breached 134.95, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg, exposing the bull trigger at 135.66, Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.08, the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures have traded higher this week and the contract remains firm with a bull cycle still in play. 100.30, the Aug 14 high, has been cleared This resumes the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 101.78 marks the next objective, a 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing. 100.64, the Sep 10 high and a gap low on the daily chart, is first support.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 3: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1155/1202 High Sep 6 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1097 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.1094 @ 10:35 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 1.1002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 1.0980 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
EURUSD has recovered from this week’s lows. Despite these gains, a bearish corrective theme remains intact - for now. The move lower this week resulted in a breach of support at 1.1026, the Sep 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.0984 - a key support. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. A break of it would be bullish.
GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Above The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3266 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3238 High Sep 6
- PRICE: 1.3147 @ 06:24 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 1.3077/3002 20-day EMA / Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 1.2970 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2895 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - 27 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2852 Low Aug 16
GBPUSD has recovered from this week’s lows. The recent move down is considered corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2970. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3266, Aug 27 high. First key support to watch is 1.3002, the Sep 11 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.8623 High Aug 22
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 2: 0.8469 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8464 High Sep 12
- PRICE: 0.8432 @ 06:54 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross continues to trade closer to its most recent lows. The latest move higher is a shallow correction and still appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current conditions. A break lower would resume the downtrend and open 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Resistance to watch is 0.8469, the 50-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 148.30 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 144.67/147.21 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- RES 1: 143.04 High Sep 12
- PRICE: 140.54 @ 10:37 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 140.41 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 3: 139.87 1.236 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has again traded to a fresh cycle low, today. The move down this week has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 140.25, Dec 28 ‘23 low. Resistance is at 144.67, 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 162.89 High Sep 2 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 160.89 High Sep 4
- RES 2: 159.89 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 157.51/158.64 High Sep 12 / 10
- PRICE: 156.19 @ 07:08 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 155.46 Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is trading closer to its recent lows, as the bear cycle that started mid-August remains in play. All key retracement points of the rally between Aug 5 - 15, have been cleared and this exposes the key support and bear trigger at 154.42, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 159.89, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6767/6824 High Sep 6 / High Aug 29 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6715 @ 07:57 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 0.6622 Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
- SUP 3: 0.6587 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5- 29 rally
- SUP 4: 0.6565 Low Aug 12
A short-term bear cycle in AUDUSD remains in place. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards 0.6608, the Aug 16 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6767, the Jun 6 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a bullish reversal and expose key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high. For now, the latest bounce appears to be a minor correction.
USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 2: 1.3630 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3623 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 1.3578 @ 07:59 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 1.3547/3441 Low Sep 9 / Aug 28 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 08
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 05
Recent strength in USDCAD appears to be corrective. Attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3630. This level remains intact - for now. A breach of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger bullish cycle. For bears, a clear reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.3441, the Aug 28 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend that started Aug 5.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.49 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 134.93 @ 05:43 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 134.08/133.35 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures have traded higher this week and this confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 2. The contract has breached 134.95, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg, exposing the key resistance and bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.08, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a potential reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 120.905 1.50 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 120.722 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.230 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 119.850 @ 05:55 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 119.600 Low Sep 9
- SUP 2: 119.352 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 119.030 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and key support
A bullish condition in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s gains have reinforced this theme. Wednesday’s move higher resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.130, the Aug 5 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 120.496, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 119.352, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 107.474 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.373 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 107.210 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.155 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 106.980 @ 06:15 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 106.880/765 Low Sep 10 / 6
- SUP 2: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 105.975 High Jun 14 (cont)
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact despite yesterday’s pullback. The move higher this week has resulted in a break of 107.047, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 107.210, the Aug 5 high. Clearance of this resistance would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Initial support lies at 106.880, the Sep 12 low.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Bulls Remains In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 102.37 1.236 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 101.78 1.00 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
- RES 1: 101.51 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 100.95 @ Close Sep 12
- SUP 1: 100.64 High Sep 10 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 2: 99.83 Low Sep 10
- SUP 3: 99.63 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 99.29 Low Sep 9
Gilt futures have traded higher this week and the contract remains firm with a bull cycle still in play. The latest round of gains have resulted in a break of 100.30, the Aug 14 high. This resumes the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 101.78 marks the next objective, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, firm short-term support has been defined 99.29, the Sep 9 low.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 121.32 2.618 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.04 2.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 120.99 HIgh Sep 12
- PRICE: 120.59 @ Close Sep 12
- SUP 1: 119.54/118.16 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 118.00 Low Jul 29
- SUP 3: 116.21 Low Jul 9
- SUP 4: 115.14 Low Jul 1
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce this condition. The break higher has resulted in a breach of 120.34, the Sep 6 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and extends the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 121.04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 119.54, the 20-day EMA.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 116-07 1.764 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3
- RES 3: 116-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 115-31 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 21 - Sep 3
- RES 1: 115-23+ High Sep 11
- PRICE: 115-01+ @ 15:55 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 114-27+/10 Low Sep 10 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 114-00+ Low Sep 4
- SUP 3: 113-12 Low Sep 3
- SUP 4: 113-06+ 50-day EMA
The trend needle in Treasuries points north and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Wednesday’s initial rally resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 115-19, the Aug 5 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards the 116.00 handle. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear M/T uptrend. Firm support is seen at 114-10, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Resistance Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 1: 4865.79/4998.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 3 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 4834.00 @ 06:19 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 4729.00 Low Sep 10
- SUP 2: 4686.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4612.94 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4558.00 Low Aug 6
Despite a short-term bounce, Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The latest move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 4686.53, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 4998.00, the Sep 3 high. First resistance is at 4865.79, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (U4) Approaching Resistance
- RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and key resistance
- RES 1: 5669.75 High Sep 3
- PRICE: 5602.75 @ 07:19 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: 5519.28/5394.00 50-day EMA / Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5367.50 Low Aug 13
- SUP 3: 5330.00 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5249.74 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
This week’s recovery in S&P E-Minis, highlights a bullish reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 3 - 6. The contract is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. Clearance of this level would open 5721.25, the Jul 16 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a reversal lower and a breach of 5394.00, the Sep 6 low, would reinstate a bearish theme.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: $83.74 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
- RES 2: $77.36 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $72.87/74.58 - High Sep 12 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $72.42 @ 07:03 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: $68.68 - Low Sep 10
- SUP 2: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $65.95 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.24 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures remain in a clear downtrend and the latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective. Recent weakness confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on $67.63 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the downtrend is in oversold territory. A recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Firm resistance is at $74.58, the 20-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $78.54 - High Aug 12 and key resistance
- RES 3: $77.60 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $73.96 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $71.32 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $69.31 @ 07:14 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: $65.27 - Low Sep 10
- SUP 2: $63.93 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $56.79 - 2.318 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures remain in a bearish condition. Tuesday’s strong sell-off reinforces current conditions and confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. This suggests that the most recent bounce is a short-term correction. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.93 next, a Fibonacci projection point, ahead of the psychological $60.00 handle. Firm resistance is at $71.32, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time High
- RES 4: $2613.3 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2584.0 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2573.0 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $2571.7 @ 10:50 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: $2501.2/2472.0 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 4
- SUP 2: $2457.5 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2417.0 - Low Sep 8
- SUP 4: $2364.4 - Low Aug 5
A bullish structure in Gold remains intact and yesterday’s gains have reinforced this theme - the metal traded to a new all-time high. This ends the recent consolidation - a pause in the uptrend - and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend. The focus is on $2584.0, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2501.2, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Rally Exposes Resistance
- RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- RES 1: $30.192 - High Aug 26
- PRICE: $30.048 @ 08:10 BST Sep 13
- SUP 1: $28.870 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $27.686/26.451 - Low Sep 6 / Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Silver traded sharply higher Thursday. This undermines a recent bearish theme and exposes key short-term resistance at $30.192, the Aug 26 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for an extension towards $30.502, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $27.686, the Sep 6 low. A breach of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme.