MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Fresh All-Time Gold High

Price Signal Summary - Fresh All-Time High In Gold      

• In the equity space, this week’s recovery in S&P E-Minis highlights a bullish reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Sep 3 - 6. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. Clearance of this level would open 5721.25, the Jul 16 high and bull trigger. Initial support is at 5519.28, the 50-day EMA. The latest move down in EUROSTOXX 50 futures resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for weakness towards 4686.53, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle. Initial key short-term resistance has been defined at 4998.00, the Sep 3 high. First resistance is at 4865.79, the 50-day EMA. The contract has recovered from its recent lows. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme.                                                                                                       
• In FX, EURUSD has recovered from this week’s lows. Despite these gains, a bearish corrective theme remains intact - for now. The move lower this week resulted in a breach of support at 1.1026, the Sep 3 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.0984 - a key support. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. A break of it would be bullish. GBPUSD has recovered from this week’s lows. The recent move down is considered corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of the downleg would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2970. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3266, Aug 27 high. First key support to watch is 1.3002, the Sep 11 low.  USDJPY bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has again traded to a fresh cycle low, today. The move down this week has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 140.25, Dec 28 ‘23 low. Resistance is at 144.67, 20-day EMA.         
• On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and yesterday’s gains have reinforced this theme - the metal traded to a new all-time high. This ends the recent consolidation - a pause in the uptrend - and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $2584.0, 1.764 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2501.2, the 20-day EMA.  In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a bearish condition. Tuesday’s strong sell-off reinforces current conditions and confirmed an extension of the bear cycle. This suggests that the most recent bounce is a short-term correction. A resumption of the downtrend would open $63.93 next, 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing, ahead of the psychological $60.00 handle. Firm resistance is at $71.32, the 20-day EMA.                                                                                                                                                                                                  
• In the FI space, Bund futures have traded higher this week and this confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 2. The contract has breached 134.95, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg, exposing the bull trigger at 135.66, Aug 5 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.08, the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures have traded higher this week and the contract remains firm with a bull cycle still in play. 100.30, the Aug 14 high, has been cleared This resumes the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 101.78 marks the next objective, a 1.00 projection of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing. 100.64, the Sep 10 high and a gap low on the daily chart, is first support.

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