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Base Effects Largely Responsible for CPI Edging Down

TURKEY
MNI (London)

TURKEY NOV CPI +2.88% M/M (FCST +3.00%); OCT +3.54% M/M
TURKEY NOV CPI +84.39% Y/Y (FCST +84.80%); OCT +85.51% Y/Y
TURKEY NOV CORE CPI +68.91% Y/Y (FCST +70.80%); OCT +70.45% Y/Y

  • Turkish headline inflation inched down by 1.1pp to +84.39% y/y in November, whilst prices increased by a 0.6pp-slower rate of +2.88% m/m. This was slightly lower than forecast expectations and the first sign of cooling headline CPI since May '21.
  • Base effects of high 2021 inflation prints (+21.31% y/y in Nov '21) coupled with relative stability in the lira in recent months will have largely accounted for the softer print.
  • The CBRT cut rates by 150bps to 9.00% as largely anticipated in November, in a continuation of the Bank's unorthodox easing cycle following calls from President Erdogan for single-digit rates into year-end.
  • The bank signalled an end to the current easing cycle, with growth-stimulating macroprudential measures to take focus going forward and a policy review due in December.
  • This will likely remain the case through year-end and well into 2023 as market focus turns to the presidential elections in June, with the President likely looking for more market and financial stability as he launches his re-election bid in earnest.

Source: Turkstat

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