Based on recent comments and the FOMC...........>

FED: Based on recent comments and the FOMC minutes, have moved Bullard, Harker

and Daly a little more hawkish on our latest FOMC Hawk-Dove spectrum since our

last update prior to the July FOMC meeting (for full analysis see email or

contact us). Re the Minutes:

- 'Several' officials siding with dissenters Rosengren and George; most likely =

Bostic, Barkin, Mester at least; assuming Harker was not one of those (he said

he was reluctant to cut though went along with it), possible that Quarles and

/or Bowman also wanted to wait?

- 'A couple' preferring 50bps cut = Kashkari and... Evans? Possibly Williams

- One thing is for sure, 50bps in September looks a very distant prospect from

here unless there are some big surprises in the next month. Even a hold has to

be considered given the decided lack of doves on the FOMC, though would be

unprecedented (Bianco Research had a stat that the Fed always follows through on

100% market pricing within 35 days of FOMC).