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BAX Futures Steepen Further With More Key US Data Ahead

CANADA
  • In contrast to US rates pressing near post-GDP/initial claims lows, BAX futures sit near the middle of the day’s range.
  • They still see decent moves on the day though, with the front Jun’23 currently -0.02, Dec’23 -0.05 and Jun’24 -0.09.
  • The combination sees the BAM3/Z3 spread widen another 2bps to +8.5bps, above the +4.5bp close on Mar 8 prior to US banking woes and currently set for its highest close since early Mar 2022.
  • CAD factors have been more mixed than the strength of US data, with the CFIB survey showing another improvement in business confidence and no real progress in labor market pressures, whilst SEPH fixed weight wage growth slowed from 4.1% to 3.0% Y/Y (in turn partly countered by the vacancy rate rising to its highest since Nov) and bank EPS results disappointed.
  • Debt talk headlines aside, tomorrow sees US data in the spot light with monthly PCE/core deflator, preliminary durable goods and finalized U.Mich consumer sentiment after the surprise lift in long-term inflation expectations.

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