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Bayer revised down to Stable outlook but kept on BBB by S&P (Moody's on Baa2 Neg, yet to comment).

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  • Over next 2yrs S&P sees EBITDA at €9-10.5b/yr (mgmt '24 guidance €10.7-11.3b) & FOCF of €2-2.5b (mgmt '24 FCF of €2-3b).
  • Items of note - its assumed €1.5b-€2b in cash outflows/yr for litigation (Bayer has €6.5b provisioned) - S&P noting it has achieved 90% reduction in plaintiff awards even after losses at trials.
  • Cash bonds are unch today, Moody's has been more timely in recent past & still on Negative outlook/yet to come - a move to stable from it would be a larger positive.

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