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BBVA: Attention On Banxico Dissenting Votes and New Forward Guidance

MEXICO
  • Inflation is likely to continue to moderate gradually in Mexico and January activity should point towards a pickup that would support a cautious Banxico. BBVA expect the central bank to initiate its easing cycle at last, with a modest 25bp cut to 11%.
  • The strength of the MXN certainly gives the bank the opportunity to test the water, and this move shouldn’t make much of an impact given the close-to-full pricing of a string of 25bp cuts during the remainder of the year.
  • The maintenance of a generally hawkish approach is almost guaranteed despite the cut, but attention will be on any dissenting vote and the new forward guidance.
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