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BBVA: Central Bank Eye Absence Of Inflationary Pressures

PERU
  • BBVA: Sees BCRP projecting a message of continuity, with the bank eyeing a complete absence of inflationary pressures.
  • In their baseline scenario, they see conditions in place to maintain rates at their current level at least until the end of the year and continue to support activity in a context with inflation between 2% and 2.5%. However, they also see some upward risks to inflation due to oil and food prices as well as a tick higher in 12M inflation expectations, which are already in close to the top-end of the target range.
  • BBVA also acknowledge downside risks, issuing concern over the moderation of activity indicators in April and the deterioration in business confidence, which may be reflecting electoral uncertainty. Should this persist, there remains the possibility of a new negative shock to activity, in a context in which the reference rate is already at its all-time low.
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