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BBVA Forecast Consecutive and Bolder Rates Cuts In 2024

COLOMBIA
  • As things stand, BBVA maintain their forecast of significant rate reductions in 2024, possibly at a greater pace than what was delivered yesterday and that will be accentuated after overcoming the greater uncertainty regarding inflation that will be concentrated at the beginning of 2024.
  • Although BBVA’s expectation was for a greater reduction, BBVA highlight the change that the Board made in its vote, noting that 3 members changed their vote from stability to reduction confirming BBVA’s vision that the Bank will continue with a cycle of significant reductions in 2024.
  • Although 25bp does not seem like a significant change as rates are at very high levels, it is a decision that, in the midst of widespread uncertainty about the economic environment and in particular the risks regarding inflation, marks a particularly important decision.
  • BBVA consider that in a context of reduction of inflation and weakening of economic activity, this surely opens the door to a cycle of reductions that they hope will be more forceful in 2024, especially when the uncertainty around inflation clears, starting with the decision to increase the minimum wage.
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