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BBVA On Peru Economic Activity and Slowing Momentum in Q4

PERU

Economic activity grew 9.7% year-on-year in September, still a high rate due to a low comparison base. In an analysis comparing GDP figures for 2021 with those for 2019 (pre-health crisis situation), activity accelerated to 3.1% (August: 1.6%), the highest growth rate in 2021 so far.

  • Within non-primary GDP, services such as financial and telecommunications, construction activity and non-primary manufacturing continued to be very dynamic.
  • Incorporating the September result, BBVA estimate economic activity advanced 11.5% in the third quarter compared to the same period of 2020, while in the comparison with the third quarter of 2019 (pre-health crisis situation) it grew 1.7%.
  • Available indicators suggest that the economy's expansion trend continues at the beginning of the fourth quarter. However, the momentum seems to diminish, as suggested by the electricity production figures, especially in early November, and the internal consumption of cement.

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