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BCB Expected To Cut Selic Rate, Government Discuss Cabinet Changes

BRAZIL
  • Brazil Central Bank are expected to start its easing cycle at the policy rate decision after market close on Wednesday. The majority of surveyed analysts believe the Copom will cut the Selic rate in 25bps bringing it down to 13.50%. The full MNI preview with analyst views is here.
  • The Brazilian real came under pressure on Tuesday with USDBRL rising around 1.4% to close at 4.7916. Broad negative sentiment across global markets drove EMFX weakness with notable weakness also seen in EM peers such as the South African Rand.
  • Earlier today, FIPE IPC which measures inflation rate in Sao Paulo declined by 0.14% against a survey of -0.01%. FENABRAVE will release vehicle sales at 1400 BST. Prior number stood at 189,528.
  • The speaker of the House Arthur Lira postponed the discussions on the new Fiscal Framework to next week while the government is still discussing changes in the cabinet, where Lira’s party expects to be offered more roles in the government.
    • Potential comments from Finance Minister Haddad who will be interviewed by Brazil official broadcaster (EBC) today at 1300 BST.
  • Of note, Petrobras announced its new dividend policy which dropped from 60% to 45% of its free cashflow which removes an overhang as the market feared more severe cuts to its payout. Later in the session on Tuesday, the company announced a 4.2% hike to jet fuel.
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