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BCB Focus Survey Adjust 2022 Year-End Rate Forecast To 12.25%

  • In the latest results from the BCB Focus Survey, economists now forecast the Selic Rate to reach 12.25% from 11.75% previously. This is largely in line with several analysts revising their terminal rate predictions following the more hawkish BCB minutes. Elsewhere there was a small revision higher to 2022 year-end inflation and an adjustment lower to 2023 growth:
    • Brazil economists forecast 5.50% 2022 inflation; prior 5.44%
    • Brazil economists forecast 3.50% 2023 inflation; prior 3.50%
    • Brazil economists forecast 0.30% 2022 GDP; prior 0.30%
    • Brazil economists forecast 1.50% 2023 GDP; prior 1.53%
    • Brazil economists see 12.25% 2022 year-end selic; prior 11.75%
    • Brazil economists see 8% 2023 year-end selic; prior 8% (all BBG)

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