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Brazil Central Bank – Minutes from the January 20th COPOM meeting. Due tomorrow 1100GMT/0600ET
Given that the central bank's inflation expectations are now aligned with the 2022 target of 3.5% and fast approaching the 2021 target of 3.75%, markets will be searching for hints from directors regarding the potential calibration of monetary policy in the short term.
Despite the removal of their forward guidance, the Copom clearly reiterated the action 'does not mechanically imply interest rates increases', citing uncertainties relating to the outlook for growth. However, in the aftermath to the announcement, markets and analysts have substantially increased their bets on an interest rate hike in the first half of the year.
The language/tone of the minutes surrounding inflation, that was described as more persistent than expected, may better inform markets of when the inevitable BCB lift-off may commence.