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BCB Minutes, National Monetary Council Meeting & QIR

BRAZIL
  • A busy calendar for Brazil this week, highlighted on the data front by mid-June IPCA inflation, due tomorrow. The headline rate is forecast to decline further to 3.37% Y/y, having printed at 3.94% in the full May reading.
  • Preceding the inflation figures, the BCB will release the Copom minutes from the June meeting. As a reminder, the Selic rate was kept unchanged at 13.75%, however, the language within the statement softened, paving the way towards an upcoming dovish pivot. Our full review of said meeting is here.
  • Perhaps more importantly, on Thursday the National Monetary Council will meet where broad consensus expects the committee to approve the inflation target for 2024/25 and keep the target at 3% for 2026. Analysts also believe the meeting could prompt a shift to a continuous inflation target, rather than a year-end based approach.
    • Goldman Sachs note that if the outcomes of this meeting do not unsettle markets, August will likely be a live meeting for policy easing.
  • Finally, the Q2’23 inflation report will show the BCB’s updated inflation forecasts for 2023, 2024 and 2025, which should remain in line with Copom statement´s numbers, as well as real GDP projections. Expect the report to delve deeper into the domestic and external balance of risks for both growth and inflation.
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