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BCB Minutes Reiterate De-Anchored Inflation Expectations

BRAZIL
  • Copom Minutes: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/publications/copomminutes
  • The latest set of BCB Minutes show little to no additional information at first glance with the emphasis remaining on de-anchored expectations being the primary driver for persisting with current policy. Additionally, the lack of a mechanical relationship between the fiscal framework and the convergence of inflation to target was highlighted.
    • This keeps attention of the Focus surveys, which yesterday did show marginal improvements with year-end 2023 & 2024 expectations dipping to 6.02% and 4.16% respectively.
  • “The Committee is following this movement with concern and continues to assess that deanchored expectations raise the cost of bringing inflation back to the target.”
  • “It was emphasized again that the behavior of expectations is a fundamental aspect of the inflationary process since it serves as a guide for present and future prices and wages setting. Thus, as expectations rise, there is a greater rise in prices in the current period and the inflationary process is fueled by these expectations.”
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